The Corner Cinema

(All figures are post nomination but pre Oscar night)

Stats Since 1989

Only 6 of the past 20 Best Picture winners were the highest grossing film amongst nominees.

12 of the past 20 Best Picture winners were the 2nd highest grossing film amongst nominees.

Only 2 films have won Best Picture without being the highest grossing or 2nd highest film amongst nominees: 2004’s “Million Dollar Baby” grossed $64,851,738 compared to “Ray’s” $75,079,595. And 1999’s “American Beauty” grossed $108,468,063 compared to “The Green Mile’s” $135,051,414.

2005 and 2004 are the only years NOT to produce a Best Picture nominee that grossed over $100 Million.

2000 produced 4 Best Picture nominees that grossed over $100 Million. “Chocolat” the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee that year still grossed $60,657,943.

2006, 1996, and 1989 have the distinction of the lowest grossing Best Picture nominees: “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “Secrets & Lies” were only separated by $1,016,298. “My Left Foot” made the least with $8,871,977.

The total gross of 2003 is greater than 2007 and 2008 combined, with $100 Million to spare.

6 years have total grosses greater than 2005 and 2006 combined.

11 of the past 20 Best Picture races averaged a gross over $75 Million, 7 of which were over $100 Million.

When you look at all 100 nominees since 1989: 29 out of 100 nominees made over 100 million, 40 out of 100 nominees made over 75 million, and 59 out of 100 nominees made over 50 million, leaving 41 out of 100 nominees making under 50 million

Whichever two nominees have the highest grosses come Oscar night, they stand a 95% chance of winning Best Picture. Or so was the case with five nominees. So what does this mean with an expanded Best Picture race? Does the eventual Best Picture winner of 2009 suddenly no longer need big box office? No, that’s not the case at all. In fact, I’d argue with an expanded field, you need an even higher profile to win, you have to stand out. And a higher profile presumably comes with higher box office.

(All predictions are post nomination but pre Oscar night)

I don’t believe “Up” with $292,933,288 stands a chance at winning so it can be excluded from highest grossing and 2nd highest grossing rule of thumb.

There’s no consensus on how much James Cameron’s “Avatar” will gross. His films average $163,849,616. Take “Titanic” out the equation and the average drops to $91,026,520. Avatar could make anywhere from $250 Million to $400 Million by March 7th.

“Inglourious Basterds” is Quentin Tarantino’s highest grossing film to date with $119,580,000. I’m currently not predicting a Best Picture nomination, let alone a win for the film despite its high gross.

Peter Jackson’s last four films made a staggering 1,213,396,792, a $303,349,198 per film average. But no one is expecting that type of number for “The Lovely Bones.” Based on a popular book with an added bonus of a PG-13 rating, $100 Million is likely by Oscar night.

“Nine” hopes to mirror the success of Rob Marshall’s “Chicago” which made $134,014,534. On the other hand, “Memoirs of a Geisha” only managed $56,826,414. Average it out, and you get $95 Million.

Three of Clint Eastwood’s last six films were nominated for Best Picture. In total, they made $377,358,778 or an average of $62,893,129. Given its friendlier subject matter than past Eastwood films (and PG-13 rating), a higher number is likely for “Invictus,” around $85 Million.

“Up in the Air” stars George Clooney who normally brings in around $55,014,820 per film. That number falls in line with Clooney’s past R-rated films “Michael Clayton” ($48,517,861), “Syriana” ($49,620,666) and “Burn After Reading” ($49,033,882). Riding the coattails of director Jason Reitman’s “Juno,” “Up in the Air” should reach $75 Million.

It’s hard to guess how much “Precious” will gross. Tyler Perry movies (a producer on “Precious”) average about $55,774,071. Oprah, also a producer, managed only $22,852,487 with “Beloved.” Director Lee Daniel’s last film grossed a paltry $370,627. “Monster’s Ball,” which he wrote made $19,678,781 before Halle Berry went on to won Best Actress. A Oscar nomination for Best Picture should be good for an additional $10 Million on top of Perry’s average, or $65 Million.

“A Serious Man” has made $4,530,000 in limited release. Since 2000, Coen Brother films have averaged $40,728,134. “A Serious Man” is one of their more inaccessible films, so $20 Million or less is likely.

Playing in only 48 theatres, “An Education” has already made $1,575,000. Recent Sony Picture Classics films have averaged $16,064,366. “An Education” should earn around $15 Million.

Going back at least 20 years and presumably much further, the lowest grossing film come Oscar night hasn’t won Best Picture. Nor has the second lowest. “The Hurt Locker” currently stands at $12,582,593 after 16 weeks. Barring a rerelease miracle, that number doesn’t bode well for a Best Picture win.

“Bright Star” in its 7th week has made $4,121,818 total. Jane Campion films average $8,067,792 and “Bright Star” should arrive at Oscar night with around $7 Million. With such low numbers, it will struggle to even manage a nomination in February.

Using these predictions, the top 5 contenders based on box office would be: “Avatar,” “The Lovely Bones,” “Nine,” “Invictus,” and “Up in the Air.”

Does that rule out a win for “Precious?” No. But unless it breaks out at the box office, a win will be very difficult and unlikely. “Crash” ($53,404,817) was the second highest grossing nominee the year it won and the only reason it didn’t take the number one spot from “Brokeback Mountain” ($83,043,761) because it was released DVD before the Oscar race even began. “Million Dollar Baby” ($64,851,738) didn’t go wide until the end of January the year it won. And “American Beauty” ($108,468,063) passed the century mark, a feat unlikely to be repeated by “Precious.”

The fact remains whether we’re looking at five Best Picture nominees or ten, box office played a key role in the past 20 Best Picture races.